14.35 Curragh Ratings Sunday
113 Smoke Them Out
99 Mickey The Steel
91 Jon Riggens
81 Merisi Diamond
70 Secret Magician
70 Winemaker
68 Tai Tam Bay
67 Usuario Amigo
54 Green Icon
52 Salacious
50 Go Out
47 Two And Two
Best Win Bet — Smoke Them Out
Smoke Them Out stands out across the strongest predictive layers:
Best Each‑Way Saver — Mickey The Steel
Mickey The Steel is the clearest value horse in the field.
Live Danger Horse (optional saver) — Jon Riggens
Not a main bet, but worth noting:
Start of the Irish Turf season, so having a go at rating the race to see how my ratings go.
16.35 Newcastle Ratings
134 Hawkseye View
128 Mobile Mamma
112 The Jad Factor
118 Athair Mor
111 Halfway House Lad
98 Goododbill
93 Swallows Song
80 Lord De Vinci
72 Alltalknoaction
71 Eveque
50 Aill Dubh
Risk notes and tactical adjustments
• If Hawkseye View shows negative market movement or a late jockey/trainer change, reduce the win stake and shift some units to Mobile Mamma each‑way.
• If each‑way terms are generous (1/4 odds, 4 places), consider increasing Mobile Mamma to 1.5 units each‑way as a saver.
• If you prefer a single‑ticket conservative approach: 1 unit win Hawkseye View + 1 unit each‑way Mobile Mamma.
14.25 Uttoxeter Ratings
147 A Poi De Nom
146 French Ship
141 John Barbour
133 Keable
130 Santos Blue
128 Red Risk
125 Hartington
118 Just Golden
117 King Of The Lake
107 Nab Wood
105 Jurancon
103 Twig
96 Thank You Ma`am
85 Hidden History
73 Roaring Conquest
72 Doughmore Bay
71 Ontheropes
⭐ A Poi De Nom
⭐ French Ship
⭐ John Barbour
These are the most complete profiles in the race.
Among them:
• A Poi De Nom has the highest Total rating.
• French Ship has the strongest trainer/jockey combination.
• John Barbour has the best suitability. Nie e/w saver bet
Those are the three your model highlights most strongly.
14.00 Cheltenham Ratings
189 Wilful
181 Sinnatra
166 Jubilee Alpha
159 Absurde
156 Bowensonfire
146 Ooh Betty
143 Cracking Rhapsody
134 Tripoli Flyer
134 Karbau
127 Sticktotheplan
124 Murcia
120 Sixandahalf
117 Hello Neighbour
115 Secret Squirrel
114 Jayeuse
112 Williethebuilder
107 Bowmore
105 Ndaawi
96 Helvic Dream
95 hamlet`s Night
88 Pinot Gris
83 Tellherthename
76 Gibbs Island
74 Balko d Angel
Win bet: Wilful
Wilful is the strongest horse in the entire dataset by a clear margin.
Why Wilful is the win bet
• Total Score: 189 (highest in the race)
• Elite Speed (14), Form (13), Performance (14)
• Very high Constancy (15)
• Strong Pace (22)
• Strong Trainer % (14)
• Strong Jockey % (11)
• No weaknesses in any category
• Top‑tier suitability across class, going, and distance
This is the most complete, most reliable, and most dominant profile in the race.
WIN BET: WILFUL
Each‑way saver #1: Sinnatra
Sinnatra is the closest challenger and the most reliable place horse.
Why Sinnatra is the top EW saver
• Total Score: 181 (2nd highest)
• Elite Speed (15) and Form (12)
• Strong Constancy (13)
• Strong Trainer % (10)
• Strong Jockey % (10)
• Very high Pace (22)
• No volatility flags
This is the most likely horse to chase Wilful home and a very strong top‑3 probability.
E/W SAVER #1: SINNATRA
Each‑way saver #2: Jubilee Alpha
Jubilee Alpha is the best value each‑way horse in the race.
Why Jubilee Alpha is the value EW
• Total Score: 166 (clear 3rd)
• Strong Speed (12), Form (13), Performance (11)
• Very high Constancy (14)
• Strong Trainer % (15)
• Strong Jockey % (8)
• Excellent suitability profile
This is the safest “third horse” in the race and a strong place candidate.
E/W SAVER #2: JUBILEE ALPHA
💰 Each‑way saver #3 (value): Absurde
Absurde is the best-priced improver and a strong place threat.
Why Absurde is the value improver
• Total Score: 159
• Strong Speed (9), Form (10), Performance (10)
• Good Constancy (10)
• Strong Trainer % (13)
• Strong Jockey % (10)
• Very solid pace and suitability
This is the horse most likely to hit the frame at a bigger price.
E/W SAVER #3: ABSURDE
4.00 Cheltenham Ratings
177 Gold Dancer
173 Jordon`s Cross
165 Stencil
163 Kiss Will
158 Regent`s Stroll
158 Slade Steel
156 Moon Rocket
156 King Alexander
155 The Bluesman
149 Kdeux Saint Fray
148 meetmebythesea
139 Wingman
130 Western Knight
104 Ben Solo
102 Ol Man Dingle
100 Dr Eggman
94 Where`s My Jet
55 Intense Approach
Win Bet: Gold Dancer
Gold Dancer is the strongest profile in the entire field:
• Total Score: 177 (highest in the race)
• Elite Speed (11), Form (11), Performance (12)
• Very high Constancy (15)
• Strong Pace (22)
• Strong Trainer % (12) and Jockey % (11)
• No weaknesses in any category
• Consistent across all conditions
This is the most complete, balanced, and reliable winning profile.
WIN BET: GOLD DANCER
Each‑Way Saver #1: Jordon’s Cross
Jordon’s Cross is the closest challenger to Gold Dancer:
• Total Score: 173 (2nd highest)
• Strong Speed (9), Form (10), Performance (9)
• Very high Constancy (13)
• Strong Pace (22)
• Good Trainer % (9) and Jockey % (8)
• No major negatives
This is the most reliable horse to hit the frame and the most likely to chase Gold Dancer home.
E/W SAVER #1: JORDON’S CROSS
Each‑Way Saver #2: Stencil
Stencil is the best value each‑way horse in the race:
• Total Score: 165 (clear 3rd)
• Very balanced profile:
• Speed: 9
• Form: 9
• Performance: 10
• Constancy: 12
• Strong Trainer % (10)
• Strong Pace (26)
• No volatility flags
Stencil is the safest “third horse” in the race and a strong place candidate.
E/W SAVER #2: STENCIL
14.40 Cheltenham Ratings
214 Storm Heart
208 Ballyadam
200 Jingko Blue
198 The yellow Clay
189 Forty Coats
187 Kateira
186 Guard Duty
186 Give It To Me Oj
181 Iberico Lord
180 Chart Topper
180 Beckett Rock
177 Farren Glory
173 Colonel Mustard
172 Minella Rescue
168 Kopeck De Mee
161 Lucky Place
159 Rambo T
126 Puturhandstogether
119 Franciscan Rock
107 Bunting
105 Buddy One
95 Sony Bill
83 Dargiannini
46 HMS Seahorse
Storm Heart (214)
• Elite Speed, Going, C/D, Draw, and Constancy
• Strong Form + Jockey/Trainer metrics
• No weaknesses in the table
→ Your model’s most complete horse. A legitimate win bet.
Ballyadam (208)
• Very high Class, Course, Distance, and Form
• Trainer % and Jockey % excellent
• Slightly lower Speed/Going match than Storm Heart
→ Rock‑solid, especially if the race conditions favour experience.
Jingko Blue (200)
• Huge Form and Draw scores
• Strong Jockey Course and Trainer Course
• Market Mover: –1, meaning slight drift
→ Still a major contender, but not as bulletproof as Storm Heart.
Win Bets
1. Storm Heart
2. Ballyadam
3. Jingko Blue
Each‑Way Value
1. The Yellow Clay
2. Forty Coats
3. Kateira
Danger Horses (include in forecasts/tricasts)
1. Iberico Lord
2. Beckett Rock
3. Farren Glory
16.40 Cheltenham Ratings
166 Vanderpoel
140 Calico
137 Rubaud
137 Personal Ambition
131 Jour d`Evasion
124 Jazzy Matty
119 Touch Me Not
117 Be Aware
113 Inthepocket
112 Relieved Of Duties
110 Break My Soul
104 Western Diego
104 The Other Mozzie
97 Boothill
95 Ballysax Hank
92 Addragoole
88 Martator
83 Jasko Des Dames
83 Release The Beast
73 Special Cadeau
57 Ryan`s Rocket
47 Golden Joy
Vanderpoel
Your model’s clear #1 — strongest speed, form, and consistency.
Calico & Rubaud
Both have strong class + speed + reliability profiles.
Personal Ambition
Very balanced — strong form, strong pace, strong suitability.
Jour d’Evasion
Improving profile, strong form, good pace — a live each‑way player.
WIN
1. Vanderpoel
2. Calico
3. Rubaud
EACH‑WAY
1. Personal Ambition
2. Jour d’Evasion
3. Jazzy Matty
15.20 Cheltenham Ratings
258 Iroko
223 Jagwar
179 Leave Of Absence
178 Myretown
160 Imerial Saint
159 Blow Your Wad
156 The Doyen Chief
151 Konfusion
151 Handstands
143 Resplendent Grey
135 Blaze The way
133 Hyland
133 Filanderer
131 Quebecois
120 Knight Of Allen
106 Margaret`s Legacy
92 Johnnywho
91 Search For Glory
89 Eyed
85 Stolen Silver
71 The Short Go
71 Patters Merchant
Summary
WIN BET
• IROKO
EACH‑WAY BETS
1. Jagwar
2. Leave Of Absence
3. Myretown
STRONGEST EACH‑WAY BET: JAGWAR
Jagwar is the standout each‑way horse because:
• Total Score: 223 (clear 2nd)
• Very high Constancy (15)
• Very high Pace (20)
• Strong Speed–Form Index (12)
• Strong Performance Score (10)
• Good Form Last Time (12)
• Race‑card comment:
“Won the Plate here last year; this new trip could prompt improvement.”
This is the perfect each‑way profile:
consistent, improving, strong course form, strong pace, strong speed.
SECOND EACH‑WAY BET: LEAVE OF ABSENCE
Your model loves him:
• Weighted Speed: 20 (joint highest in the race)
• Strong Constancy (17)
• Strong Pace (17)
• Good Speed–Form Index (13)
• Good Performance Score (9)
• Race‑card comment:
“Not disgraced in Grade 2; not ruled out each‑way back in a handicap.”
This is the classic “strong speed + strong consistency + class drop”
THIRD EACH‑WAY BET: HYLAND
Hyland is the sleeper in your numbers:
• Total Score: 133 (mid‑pack but misleading)
• Strong Weighted Speed (10)
• Good Form Last Time (9)
• Good Constancy (7)
• Good Speed–Form Index (13)
• Race‑card comment:
“3‑5 here and close fourth at Ascot; could be in the mix.”
Cheltenham course form + staying power + consistency = each‑way danger.
E/W BET #3: HYLAND
16.02 Nass Ratings
153 Goraibhmaithagot
132 Uhavemeinstiches
126 High Class hero
114 Bushmans Pass
104 Shanbally Kid
101 Grandero Bello
100 Harvard Guy
98 Sa Majeste
91 Ballybow
91 Kinturk Kalanisi
88 Buachailbocht
86 Velvet Elvis
80 Prophet`s Corner
78 Built By Ballymore
67 Chosen Witness
63 The Lovely Man
1. Goraibhmaithagat
The strongest form horse in the race.
• Landed a gamble in a Listed handicap here last time.
• Beat several of today’s rivals decisively.
• Up 7lb but still looks well treated on the evidence of that win.
• Highest Weighted Speed, Speed, Form, and Total in your sheet.
This is the clearest “top of the form tree” runner.
2. Uhavemeinstitches
Consistent, progressive, and reliable.
• Debut chase winner.
• Has run well in defeat since.
• Comes here instead of the Kim Muir — a strong placement signal.
• High Speed/Going, strong Form, and a high Total score.
A very solid form horse with no major negatives.
Bushmans Pass
Last year’s winner with a strong form base.
• Won this race off 127 last year.
• Seasonal return was below best, but that’s typical for him.
• Back to defend his title and now fitter.
• Strong Form, Consistency, and a high Total relative to the field.
On form alone, he edges the rest of the second tier.
Bucksy Des Epeires
This is the most obvious volatility horse.
• Had fallen in the weights before winning at Ludlow.
• That win showed a big spike compared to previous runs.
• Still on a workable mark → upside remains.
• Profile: low reliability, high improvement swing, capable of a big run.
Your volatility formula will push him strongly into the E/W shortlist.
14.27 Sandown Ratings
135 Fingle Bridge
128 Star Of Guiting
123 Rubber Ball
119 Go Dante
118 Top Jimmy
108 Game Colours
107 Gooloogong
102 General Briar
98 Jack Hyde
95 We`re Red And blue
95 Mondo Man
93 Spirits Bay
92 Afadil
87 Bubble Dubai
98 Jack Hyde
95 We`re Red And blue
95 Mondo Man
93 Spirits Bay
92 Afadil
87 Bubble Dubai
79 No Ordinary Joe
63 Wreckless Eric
53 Brace For Landing
27 Messerschmitt
Win Score Race (top win candidates)
1. Go Dante – Course specialist; wind op; strong Ability + Condition.
2. Star Of Guiting – Progressive; improving; strong Speed/Form.
3. General Briar – Unexposed; big upside.
4. Top Jimmy – Solid recent form; reliable.
Each‑Way (volatility‑boosted)
1. Gooloogong – Massive volatility; huge upside; dangerous at a price.
2. Jack Hyde – Reliable placer; strong consistency.
3. Afadil – Proven in the race; stable profile.
4. Wreckless Eric – Well handicapped; placed last year.
5. Rubber Ball – Form swings; dangerous if repeating last run.
17.12 Dundalk Friday Ratings
159 Lohore Da King
141 Nikki Swango
131 Notforalongtime
122 Battle Borne
122 Una Matata
118 Blue Anthem
114 Perfect Judgement
111 Mehman
107 Clanmacash
102 Howyoulikethat
82 Beauty Queen
73 Rockbury Lad
68 Alfred Tennyson
44 Desert haven
Form Guide
Money ing on Nikki Swango so could be the saver
Notforalongtime ticks a lot of boxes. so could be the good outsider e/w bet.
Win saver on the top rated.
19.30 Newcastle Ratings
157 Caston
156 Digital
153 Harb
144 Lion`s House
141 Our Absent friends
133 Blue Force
112 Water Of Leith
99 Juan Les Pins
96 Dark Kestrel
79 Moonshine Boy
76 Albegone
64 Pop Star
Lion’s House is the clear model favourite, driven by high improvement, strong perfom Ajust, and top Ability.
• Caston, Digital, Our Absent Friends, and Blue Force form a tight cluster of co‑second favourites — your model sees them as almost identical threats.
• Harb, Water of Leith, Juan Les Pins are legitimate place contenders with small but meaningful win chances.
• Moonshine Boy, Albegone, Pop Star have limited winning profiles but can run into the frame.
• Dark Kestrel would need an extreme race shape to win.
Lion House looks the winner on form, Caston and Our Absent friends could be the e/w bets, also a reverse tricast on the above 3
18.00 Kempton Ratings
1. I’m Working On It — 130.
2. Advancing — 113.
3. Mr Baloo — 113.
4. Miletus — 106.
5. Midnight Dream — 101.
6. Shihoku — 100.
7. Elouise’s Prince — 91.
8. Harvey — 89.
9. Cavolo Nero — 84.
10. Helm Rock — 78.
11. Good Speed — 63.
Rossendale Value‑Bet Shortlist (Final)
1. Miletus
2. Midnight Dream
3. Shihoku
4. Elouise’s Prince
5. Cavolo Nero (each‑way)
Final Rossendale Value‑Bet Shortlist
1. Miletus — true price 9/2
2. Midnight Dream — true price 11/2
3. Shihoku — true price 6/1
4. Elouise’s Prince — true price 15/2
5. Cavolo Nero — true price 10/1 (each‑way)
Highest‑probability tricasts
• Miletus → Midnight Dream → Shihoku
• Miletus → Shihoku → Midnight Dream
• Midnight Dream → Miletus → Shihoku
• Shihoku → Miletus → Midnight Dream
Value tricasts (big prices but logical)
• Cavolo Nero → Miletus → Midnight Dream
• Cavolo Nero → Midnight Dream → Shihoku
• Cavolo Nero → Elouise’s Prince → Miletus
16.02 Southwell Ratings
151 Azure Angel
122 Spring Is Sprung
120 Rhythm N Hooves
111 Venture Capital
107 Ziggy`s Triton
105 Baldomero
105 Fivethousandtoone
86 Pilgrim
82 Equality
77 Mon Na Slive
47 Gaeli
Azure Angel becomes the clear top pick because its race‑profile Total (148) is far higher than the rest.
• Spring Is Sprung and Rhythm N Hooves remain strong because their class layer boosts them. e/w
• Ziggy’s Triton, Venture Capital, and Fivethousandtoone form a tight mid‑pack cluster. e/w
• Gaeli is a long way behind — both layers score low.
18.30 Wolverhampton Ratings
162 Beauzon
139 Macarone
130 Havana Sky
115 Lucky Man
112 Mart
112 Initial Blue
107 Due Date
97 Woodhay Whisper
74 Dicko the Legend
62 Punchbowl Flyer
• Small bankroll approach:
• Beauzon — 3 units win.
• Macarone — 1 unit win; 1 unit each‑way (if 1/4 or 1/5 terms).
• Mart and Due Date — 0.5 unit each‑way.
• Higher risk / higher reward: shift 1 unit from Beauzon to Punchbowl Flyer or Initial Blue each‑way.
16.25 Leopardstown Ratings
131 The Wallpark
130 Dreal Deal
130 Jordans
127 Gorgeous Tom
121 Ballybawn Belter
120 Broomfield Bijou
106 Quai De Bourbon
106 O`Toole
101 Monbeg Park
90 Moon d`Orange
82 An Peann Dearg
80 Fishery Lane
60 Binge Worthy
59 Invictus Machin
53 Digby
43 Indiana Jones
The Wallpark : Good weighted spedd, going form. win saver
Dreal Deal : Shown good speed e/w
Jordons : ticks a feww boxes, so win saver and a small e/w ,
Gorgeous Tom : Also ticks a few boxes. win, e/w saver
14.55 Kelso Ratings
151 Spectacularsunrise
133 Lucky Manifest
132 Captain Hugo
123 Hot Fuss
120 Dedicated Hero
118 Serious Operator
117 Cracking Rhapsody
110 Serious Challenge
107 Bertie's Ballet
104 Hamlet's Night
102 City of Diamonds
98 Wise Eagle
93 Jet to Vegas
86 Heart Above
81 Laafi
59 Quaviste
56 Bespoke Tailor
Best Bet – Spectacularsunrise
Confidence: 9/10 (Very High)
Spectacularsunrise is the Rossendale banker.
Why the model loves him:
• Total: 151 (highest in the race)
• Speed: elite
• Form: elite
• Consistency Index: 15 (top of the field)
• Performance Score2: 120
• Future Rating: 11
• Win Prob2: 13
• Jockey/Trainer synergy: strong
• “Winner” + “Top 4” flags
• Above Avg confidence
Hamlet’s Night – 104 Total
• Above Avg
• Future Rating: 9
• Consistent
A solid EW option at a price.
Value Sleeper – City of Diamonds
Confidence: 7/10
City of Diamonds is the ratings sleeper:
• Total: 102
• Performance Score2: 30
• Future Rating: 10
• Win Prob2: 13
• “Winner” tag
• Top 4 flagged
If the market overlooks him, he’s the one who could blow the race open.
14.42 Lingfield Ratings
135 Party Bear
133 Lady Manzor
131 Brazilian Rose
119 Mereside Diva
117 Penelope Valentine
96 Bridget`s View
90 Ziggy`s Queen
90 Bear Rock
82 Powdering
77 Enola Grey
63 Cartwheel
• Win focus:
• Party Bear, Brazilian Rose, Lady Manzor
• EW / place focus:
• Mereside Diva, Penelope Valentine, Ziggy’s Queen
• Speculative EW only if big price:
• Powdering
• Horses you don’t need onside:
• Cartwheel, plus Bear Rock / Bridget’s View as low‑priority.
19.00 Chelmsford Ratings
128 Flicka`s Girl
109 Poetic Jack
86 Dark Sorcerss
80 Hannah`s Return
70 Tilsworth Only Ta
69 Lynwood Lad
59 Beautiful Things
48 Little Miss Magic
43 Henry Tudor
34 Magic Fluke
Flicka’s Girl
• Tagged Winner, Outstanding, Top 4.
• High Weighted Speed (128), strong Speed/Form Index, high consistency.
• One of the few with positive “Performance Score2” and “Best Horses” flags.
• Poetic Jack
• Tagged Strong, Top 4, EW Bet.
• High Form, strong Speed/Going, good Trainer/Jockey percentages.
• Market Movers positive.
These two form the core of the race.
EW Value
These horses don’t top the ratings but have improving profiles or strong single metrics.
• Dark Sorceress
• High Speed/Form, strong consistency, good pace.
• Lower Performance Score but improving.
• Hannah’s Return
• Tagged Outstanding.
• Good Form, good consistency, improving profile.
These are the EW or place‑value types.
14.42 Lingfield Ratings
129 Street Life
116 The Defiant
108 Second Collection
102 Manhatton Chute
101 Coolagh Magic
91 Desdemona
86 Bluebells Boy
85 Honour Your Dreams
82 Dubai Magic
74 Tomarlo
Top 4 Horses
1. Manhatton Chute — Probable Winner
2. Street Life — Strong numbers, high performance, Top 4 flag
3. Tomarlo — Strong, consistent, high tactical score
4. Desdemona — Above average, reliable, strong Speed/Form Index
Final Summary
This race revolves around Manhatton Chute.
If he runs to his numbers, he wins.
If he underperforms, Street Life is the most likely to capitalise.
For value, The Defiant and Second Collection are the EW angles.
Tomarlo is the danger if the race turns tactical.
15.42 Newcastle Ratings
160 Blue lakota
135 Dandy Magic
134 Novak
128 True Promise
116 Fan Mail
115 The Green Man
112 Beale Street
110 Grant Wood
93 Kitaab
91 Alpine Girl
86 Showtime Mahomes
80 Maxi Boy
Blue Lakota
• Highest performance score
• High weighted speed
• Strong consistency
• Market resistant
• Top‑4 + EW flagged
• Draw adjusted speed strong
Best Speed Horse
Beale Street
• Highest raw speed (88)
• Strong draw
• Trainer course angle positive
If the race sets up for speed, this one becomes dangerous.
DANDY MAGIC — Best E/W Bet
Performance Score: 135 (2nd overall behind Blue Lakota, but
This is the horse that ticks every EW box:
✔ Strong speed
✔ Strong form
✔ Strong trainer
✔ Strong pace
✔ Consistent
✔ Market‑friendly
✔ High performance score
✔ Your model explicitly tags it as EW Bet
Key Horses at Newcastle
Pallas Lad e/w 16.12
JKR Cobbler 16.42
How`s The Guvnor 17.42
18.00 Wolverhampton Ratings
133 Ramon Di Loria
126 Von Krolock
114 River Wharfe
113 Pofrin
110 Amaysmont
98 Bad Habits
83 Buttercross Flyer
78 Romanovich
75 Lhebayeb
43 Rambusco Creek
1. Ramon Di Loria — The Clear Win Bet
Why he’s the standout:
• Highest Performance Score (135)
• Strongest Form + Speed combination
• High consistency
• Excellent tactical numbers
• Trend: Improving
Verdict:
He has the most complete profile in the race. If he runs to his marks, he wins.
1. Pofrin — Rock‑Solid E/W
Why he’s ideal for place money:
• Performance Score 112
• Strong Speed/Going
• Improving trend
• Good tactical pace
Verdict:
Always runs his race. A classic E/W banker.
16.00 Ayr Ratings
132 Diamond Geezer
105 The Jeweller`s Pet
97 Nellie Bluesky
89 Montian Molly
89 El Jefe
87 Eloi Du Puy
84 The Navigator
74 Jericoacoara
70 Lights Go Down
51 Balking
17 Go Frankie
FULL RACE VERDICT — ALL ANGLES COMBINED
Diamond Geezer sets a clear standard on the figures and looks the most likely winner. His overall profile is exceptionally strong: high Weighted Speed, excellent Form and Speed ratings, strong tactical numbers, and a top‑tier Performance Score of 132. He’s consistent, well‑drawn, and brings the most complete combination of speed, form, and reliability. If he runs to his marks, he should take plenty of beating.
The main danger is The Jeweller’s Pet, who posts a solid Performance Score of 105 and shows a strong blend of Form, Fitness, and tactical pace. He lacks the raw power of the favourite but has enough consistency and finishing ability to capitalise if the race becomes tactical or if Diamond Geezer underperforms.
Nellie Bluesky is the most interesting improver in behind. Her Speed/Going profile is strong, her Form is solid, and she has the type of upward curve that often produces a next‑time‑out winner. She’s not quite at the level of the top two yet, but she’s the one most likely to outrun her odds.
For each‑way players, Montian Molly and El Jefe appeal most. Montian Molly has a strong Form/Fitness combination and a reliable finishing profile, while El Jefe brings a high tactical pace rating and enough consistency to make the frame. Both look well suited to picking up place money if the principals dominate.
Eloi Du Puy and The Navigator sit just behind the main group — capable of running well but needing the race to fall their way. They’re more place than win material.
At the other end, Jericoacoara, Lights Go Down, Balking, and Go Frankie all look up against it. Their totals and tactical profiles suggest they’re either too inconsistent, too slow, or too exposed to be serious win or place contenders.
Verdict Summary
Most Likely Winner:
Diamond Geezer — strongest overall profile, top Performance Score, best tactical blend.
Main Danger:
The Jeweller’s Pet — consistent, strong Form/Fitness, capable of pouncing if the favourite slips.
Best Each‑Way Plays:
• Montian Molly
• El Jefe
Value Outsider / Dark Horse:
Nellie Bluesky — improving profile, could surprise. Oppose / Low Appeal:
16.00 Ayr Ratings
132 Diamond Geezer
105 The Jeweller`s Pet
97 Nellie Bluesky
89 Montian Molly
89 El Jefe
87 Eloi Du Puy
84 The Navigator
74 Jericoacoara
70 Lights Go Down
51 Balking
17 Go Frankie
FULL RACE VERDICT — ALL ANGLES COMBINED
Diamond Geezer sets a clear standard on the figures and looks the most likely winner. His overall profile is exceptionally strong: high Weighted Speed, excellent Form and Speed ratings, strong tactical numbers, and a top‑tier Performance Score of 132. He’s consistent, well‑drawn, and brings the most complete combination of speed, form, and reliability. If he runs to his marks, he should take plenty of beating.
The main danger is The Jeweller’s Pet, who posts a solid Performance Score of 105 and shows a strong blend of Form, Fitness, and tactical pace. He lacks the raw power of the favourite but has enough consistency and finishing ability to capitalise if the race becomes tactical or if Diamond Geezer underperforms.
Nellie Bluesky is the most interesting improver in behind. Her Speed/Going profile is strong, her Form is solid, and she has the type of upward curve that often produces a next‑time‑out winner. She’s not quite at the level of the top two yet, but she’s the one most likely to outrun her odds.
For each‑way players, Montian Molly and El Jefe appeal most. Montian Molly has a strong Form/Fitness combination and a reliable finishing profile, while El Jefe brings a high tactical pace rating and enough consistency to make the frame. Both look well suited to picking up place money if the principals dominate.
Eloi Du Puy and The Navigator sit just behind the main group — capable of running well but needing the race to fall their way. They’re more place than win material.
At the other end, Jericoacoara, Lights Go Down, Balking, and Go Frankie all look up against it. Their totals and tactical profiles suggest they’re either too inconsistent, too slow, or too exposed to be serious win or place contenders.
Verdict Summary
Most Likely Winner:
Diamond Geezer — strongest overall profile, top Performance Score, best tactical blend.
Main Danger:
The Jeweller’s Pet — consistent, strong Form/Fitness, capable of pouncing if the favourite slips.
Best Each‑Way Plays:
• Montian Molly
• El Jefe
Value Outsider / Dark Horse:
Nellie Bluesky — improving profile, could surprise. Oppose / Low Appeal:
15.00 Nass Ratings
105 Collaborative
101 Moudan
100 Whimsy
91 Give Him A Chance
86 Fierce Handay
85 Joueur Masque
83 Le Grande Peinture
81 Piccolo Player
81 Fiveonfive
79 I A Connect
76 Be Fierce
65 Cut The Rope
61 Rebel Gold
58 Peaceinthevalley
56 Raydamann
46 Granville Street
20 Catch The Beast
BEST WIN BET — COLLABORATIVE
Why Collaborative is the standout
He has the strongest all‑round profile in the race:
• Performance Score: 105 (highest in the race)
• Speed: 8
• Form: 8
• Constancy: 8
• Speed/Going: 8
• Pace: 7
• Speed‑Form Index: 10
• Market Movers: +1 (positive)
• Win Rate: 7
• Total Score: 105 (top)
NEXT BEST (Win Alternative) — MOUDAN
Why he’s the danger
• Performance Score: 101
• Speed: 11 (highest in the race)
• Form: 9
• Constancy: 7
• Speed‑Form Index: 3
• Market Movers: –1 (slightly negative)
He’s the only horse with the raw speed to trouble
BEST EACH‑WAY BET — WHIMSY
Why Whimsy is the perfect EW horse
• Performance Score: 100
• Speed: 9
• Form: 10
• Constancy: 6
• Speed‑Form Index: 5
• Market Movers: –4 (market underrating him)
• Total Score: 100
• Strong finishing profile
He has the best finishing kick in the race and is undervalued by the market.
BEST EW BET: WHIMSY
17.45 Dundalk Ratings
149 Carolina Jetstream
147 Instant Appeal
145 Exquisite Acclaim
129 Moyassr
119 Pink Oxalis
114 Final Voyage
110 Far From Dandy
101 Quatre Bras
99 Titanium
98 Howyoulikethat
90 Brewing
79 Blues Emperor
47 Ndaawi
Carolina Jetstream; Good jockey on board.
Moyassr Is akey horse of mine in the race, Its a improver in the race.
Exquisite Acclaim good form in the race.
ROSSENDALE RACE VERDICT
WIN BET — Carolina Jetstream
Class edge + pace edge + consistency + form + draw.
The most complete profile in the race.
NEXT BEST — Instant Appeal
Strong everywhere, just slightly behind the top pick.
BEST EACH‑WAY — Exquisite Acclaim
Perfect EW shape: strong draw, strong form, strong speed, strong consistency.
VALUE PLAY — Moyassr
Big improver, strong form, likely a bigger price.
Key horses at Dundalk
prairie Girl 15.40
Go Out 16.10
Porshe Lad 16.40
Spirit Honour e/w 17.15
Imperial Fighter e/w outsider 18.45
15.43 Sedgefield Ratings
117 Benefit Ben
105 Avalon Beach
102 Thank Youe Blue
92 Les`s Legacy
91 Tread Softly Now
90 Deareithandkaty
86 A Mere Bagatelle
80 North Parade
50 Jakana
41 Alidam
39 Lady Phoebe
16 My Boy Christy
WIN BET — BENEFIT BEN
This one absolutely smashes your sheet.
Why Benefit Ben is the top selection
• Performance Score: 117 → Highest in the race
• Speed/Form Index: 93 (very strong for this grade)
• Constancy Index: 8 → Reliable
• Speed/Going: 10 → Best in the field
• Pace: 10 → Ideal tactical setup
• Top 4 Horses: 8
• Win Prob: 5 (solid for this class)
• Market Movers: 2 → Quiet but positive
He’s the only runner hitting speed + consistency + going suitability + pace advantage all at once.
BEST EACH‑WAY BET — AVALON BEACH
Your sheet loves this one for place purposes.
Why Avalon Beach is the EW standout
• Performance Score: 105
• Speed/Form Index: 94
• Constancy Index: 8
• Speed/Going: 8
• Pace: 5
• Top 4 Horses: 7
• EW Bet profile is perfect: strong but not favourite
He’s the safest, most reliable EW profile in the race.
➡️ Best EW Bet: AVALON BEACH
VALUE PLAY — THANK YOUE BLUE
This is your classic Rossendale outsider with upside.
Why Thank Youe Blue is the value nibble
• Performance Score: 102
• Speed/Form Index: 94
• Improver Spike: 7
• Pace: 9
• Top 4 Horses: 7
• Win Rate: 10 → Big positive
• Will be a price
Not a main bet, but absolutely the right kind of value poke.
Value Nibble: THANK YOUE BLUE
20.00 Kempton Ratings
136 Powdering
130 Shallow
118 Supreme King
105 Charlie Mason
103 Ziggy`s Condor
98 Amazonian Dream
82 Merrimack
80 Al Barez
71 Auric
53 Irish Nector
49 Mission Command
30 Rory Rocket
WIN BET — POWDERING
Powdering is the strongest overall profile in the race.
Why Powdering is the top selection
• Performance Score: 136 → Highest in the race
• Speed/Form Index: 93 (solid for this grade)
• Strong verdict
• Improver Spike: 10
• Draw Adjusted Speed: 11 → Best in the field
• Top 4 Horses: 7
• EW Bet flag also present (shows stability)
• Consistency Index: 7
He’s the only runner hitting performance + consistency + draw + improver all at once.
Your engine has him as the most complete profile in the race.
Official Win Selection: POWDERING
BEST EACH‑WAY BET — SHALLOW
Shallow is the standout EW play based on your numbers.
Why Shallow is the EW standout
• Performance Score: 130 → 2nd highest
• Outstanding verdict
• Improver Spike: 4
• Top 4 Horses: 6
• EW Bet flag
• Win Prob: 9
• Consistency Index: 6
He’s not quite as complete as Powdering, but he’s the best place profile and likely to be a backable price.
Best EW Bet: SHALLOW
Rossendale £5 Staking Plan
• £3 WIN — Powdering
• £1.50 EW — Shallow
• £0.50 EW — Supreme King
A Small e/w on Ziggy`s Condor, one of my key horses in the race.
Hopefully better than yesteday. fell, fell p/u top 3.
16.30 Newbury Ratings
127 Robber`s Bridge
105 Glance Of Glory
86 Teorie
84 One Eye On Vegas
82 Cast`s Tasha
79 Luwdvig
73 Close Combat
71 De Kingpin
54 Balboa
47 Gustapof
42 Painted Wolf
24 Tyson
I have never rated this type of race before, See how it goes
Best Each‑Way Bet — GLANCE OF GLORY
Your sheet LOVES this one for EW purposes.
Why Glance of Glory is the EW standout
• Performance Score: 105
• Speed/Form Index: 117 → Massive
• Strong verdict
• Winner flag in your sheet
• Improver Spike: 16 → Biggest in the race
• Top 4 Horses: 10
• Market odds rank: 5 → EW value
• Profit horses: £0.46 → Positive#
EW BET: GLANCE OF GLORY
Final Verdict (Ratings Only)
WIN — Robber’s Bridge
E/W — Glance of Glory
Value EW — Teorie
15.35 Carlisle Ratings
117 Lady Babs
111 Soldier Leap
110 Russian Virtue
107 Two Auld Pals
106 He`s Bresilion
99 Vampire Slayer
98 Book Of Secrets
83 Azahara Palace
81 Dee`s Getaway
81 Swinging London
67 Celestial Reign
65 Rock Hurley
64 Fostered Phil
43 Interchangeable
BOOK OF SECRETS
Your ratings already had him top, and the comments don’t weaken that:
Comments say:
• “1‑19 over hurdles” (not ideal)
• BUT “close 2nd at Newton Abbot”
• AND “well beaten over C&D since”
Your ratings say:
• Outstanding
• Huge Improver Index (14)
• Top 4
• Winner flag
• High Performance Score (110)
• Strong Speed/Form Index
Synthesis:
The form comments are lukewarm, but your ratings absolutely love him, and the C&D defeat is already baked into your numbers.
He stays top selection. If running to old form could run well at a price.
Best Each‑Way Bet: LADY BABS
Your ratings had her as the clear EW standout, and the comments actually strengthen that angle.
Comments say:
• “Triple C&D winner”
• “Not in top form this season”
• “Others make more appeal”
Your ratings say:
• Outstanding
• EW Bet flag
• High consistency
• High performance score (117)
• Draw-adjusted speed positive
• Market odds rank suggests value
Synthesis:
The comments make her sound unfashionable — which is exactly what creates EW value.
Your numbers say she’s running far better than the formbook suggests.
Good old c/d form, so if running to the old form could be a small e/w outsider at a price
Win Saver Soldier Leap .
18.45 Southwell Ratings
102 Many A Star
75 Ormolulu
68 Filly One
65 Bulldog Drummond
64 Lir Speciale
57 Lucky Man
54 Admiral D
44 Minnesota Lad
43 Mojomaker
39 Mahato
36 Harry Did
35 Counsel
Form Guide
Many A Star : On last winning mark from Wolverhampton 6f class 4
e/w saver.
Ormolulu : Weakened over 7f at Southwell class 4, Down in distance today. so a e/w saver
Filly One : Ran on well last time, so could be a e/w saver bet at a price.
Top Performing Horses
Filly One: 66% win rate, 100% place rate, and 66% win rate on this distance.
Ormolulu: 40% win rate, 29% place rate, and 30% win rate on this distance.
Lucky Man: 50% win rate, 28% place rate, and 54% win rate on this distance.
Horses to Watch
Many A Star: 22% win rate, 18% place rate, and 17% win rate on this distance.
Lir Speciale: 20% win rate, 25% place rate, and 22% win rate on this distance.
Bulldog Drummond: 18% win rate, 15% place rate, and 20% win rate on this distance.
Win Bet: Place a win bet on Filly One or Ormolulu.
Each-Way Bet: Consider an each-way bet on Lucky Man or Many A Star.